Two tired teams meet in a match where one side leaks points and rebounds and the other rebounds and runs. Utah has the home court, but the recent evidence between them leans toward Memphis keeping it close.
Memphis won the earlier meeting by 20, winning the glass 55 to 38 and scoring 23 fast-break points against a Utah front line missing its centres. Utah has since allowed 123, 119 and 132 in its three games, and Nurkic remains out.
The key matchup is Memphis's rebounding and running against Utah's weak glass and transition defence. Memphis's own weakness is turnovers, which it has survived through shot-making. Utah's reply is home altitude and open-three variance.
Both sides are on the second night of a back-to-back. Edey is doubtful on the latest report, and his status is the biggest swing for Memphis's rebounding edge.
I expect a close match decided by the glass and turnovers late. That's why I'm siding with Memphis, the road underdog, to stay within a small margin.
