Two European nights, two different shapes. In Craiova the roles fit neatly: the home champions will carry the ball and Getafe will sit in the deep block they always want, so the match turns on whether a Getafe side stripped of its forwards can score away at all. In Sinsheim both teams want the ball and both have been leaking, so the structure points to an open game with chances at each end rather than one-way control.
Craiova vs Getafe first. Under Bordalás, Getafe win by suffering: about 37% of the ball, a 5-4-1, narrow 1-0 wins. Away from home that model has barely produced goals. They lost their last five away games scoring once, and across their last twenty away games they have just four goals. Their average chance quality is low too, so this is a lack of attacking ability, not bad luck.
Now the absences make it thinner. Ünal, Azón, Uche and Juanmi are all missing, plus Mangala in midfield and Zaid Romero at the back, and only nineteen players travelled. Satriano is left alone up front, so Getafe's realistic routes are long balls, second balls and set pieces. Craiova have their own gaps, with Mora suspended and Rus out on the right side of the back three, and that is where Getafe will aim their crosses and dead balls.
The flow I expect: Craiova push the block back in front of a big home crowd, with long spells of 0-0 while Getafe slow the game down. Their creators, Băluță, Cicâldău and Baiaram, will get volume against a Getafe side that concedes plenty of shots. Turning that into goals is the open question, since they managed only one in two games against Ararat-Armenia. But for Getafe to come away with the win they have to score, and that is the one thing this squad is least equipped to do. That's why I'm siding with Craiova not losing at home.
Hoffenheim vs Besiktas next. Hoffenheim under Ilzer take 59-67% of the ball and fire 17-23 shots a game, but they have conceded in all six matches this season. Three times they let a lead slip, against Dortmund, Koln and Hamburg, and seven of their last fourteen goals conceded came after the hour. That happened with the same core back line, which is now also missing Hajdari.
Besiktas are without Vlahovic, Cerny and Rashica, a big part of their scoring. Even so, Orkun Kokcu between the lines and Trossard drifting in from the left are exactly the players who punish a side that keeps losing the ball high up the pitch. Their two away blanks came against deep blocks where they had most of the ball. A pressing Hoffenheim at home will not give them that kind of game.
Besiktas also conceded first in all four of their away matches, and Hoffenheim scored in five of six. I expect a lively first half where Hoffenheim's volume tells, and a second half where Besiktas grow into it, as they did with big second halves at Fenerbahce and Amedspor. However the winner is decided, I'm siding with goals at both ends of this one.
