Pumas against Cruz Azul has an awkward shape, because the visiting coach is the one saying Pumas deserve more points than they have. Joel Huiqui said exactly that before the match, and the place where those points have leaked is easy to find: 16 conceded in ten league games, and only one clean sheet, as TUDN's Rodrigo Celorio put it. Cruz Azul, meanwhile, are the side whose games tend to come apart at both ends. So I'm less interested in who is better on paper than in whether anyone on the pitch is actually set up to keep this quiet.
Pumas' home form makes that question sharper. One win in five at the Olímpico Universitario, six goals scored and eight conceded. Celorio says there's no win-or-leave ultimatum for Esteban Solari and that the club usually respects its projects, but that a heavy defeat could force decisions. A coach in that spot has every reason to make sure his team isn't opened up, and that sits uneasily with a home side that has scored six times in five games there.
Cruz Azul come in 7th, and Huiqui called this match the key to the rest of their tournament if they want the Liguilla. Their home games have been wild: 12 scored and 12 conceded in six, including the 4-3 over América and the 3-3 with Toluca, and four of their last ten matches have had five or more goals. Away from home it has been calmer, seven scored and six conceded in four. The catch is the defence. Vamos Azul reports that Gonzalo Piovi hasn't trained fully with the group because of discomfort and that Rodolfo Rotondi is still working separately with plantar fasciitis, while José Paradela is racing back from a muscle problem picked up in the knock against LA Galaxy. Huiqui's line on Paradela was that nothing is ruled out.
There's also the last meeting at this stadium, the second leg of the Final that Cruz Azul won 2-1 at CU. Huiqui called it a good memory but said it belongs to the past, and I wouldn't lean on it much either way. What I'll be watching is the opening twenty minutes. If Pumas start by protecting themselves, they hand Cruz Azul the calmer, away-style game they've handled well. If they push early, they're testing a back line that may be missing a centre-back at full fitness. Which version do you think Solari picks?
