[26-27 UEL Europa League] Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace preview and analysis Kick-off: October 22, 19:00 UTC
Beşiktaş and Crystal Palace meet at Tüpraş Stadium in Istanbul on October 23 at 04:00 Korea time for Matchday 3 of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Beşiktaş have won both of their opening games and are looking to stay in the top-eight race, while Crystal Palace have one win and one defeat and need to recover after consecutive away losses. In the clubs’ first competitive meeting, Beşiktaş’s home press and Crystal Palace’s transition attack could decide the outcome.
1. Match overview and team form
Beşiktaş beat Marseille 4-1 and Hoffenheim 3-2 to sit fourth on six points. Crystal Palace opened with a 4-0 win over Lech Poznań before losing 3-2 away to Lyon, leaving them 15th on three points (data centre, as of October 22). The top eight in the league phase qualify directly for the round of 16. Beşiktaş’s Wilfred Ndidi said the club are targeting a top-eight finish and cited home advantage (Doay Dinle, October 21). A win would take Beşiktaş to nine points, while Crystal Palace would remain on three after three matches if they lose.
Both teams lost their most recent league away game. Beşiktaş fell 2-0 to Trabzonspor, while Crystal Palace were beaten 5-0 by Brighton. Beşiktaş had 19 shots against Trabzonspor but generated only 1.19 expected goals. Crystal Palace conceded three goals inside the opening 10 minutes against Brighton: an own goal from a set piece, a turnover in the build-up and an open-play shot. After his side conceded early in three straight matches, coach Pierre Sage said he would review their preparation (Dave.Sport, October 18).
Beşiktaş have been strong at home. They have won all eight home matches in all competitions since July and all of their last four European home games (TNT Sports and Crystal Palace’s official website, October 21). Four of those eight home wins, though, came by a single goal. Crystal Palace have one win, one draw and three defeats in five away matches this season, scoring five and conceding 12 (data centre). The records favour Beşiktaş, but their home winning run alone does not point to a heavy defeat for Palace.
Recent form Europa League league phase: Beşiktaş 2 wins, 7 goals scored and 3 conceded / Crystal Palace 1 win, 1 defeat, 6 goals scored and 3 conceded Last match: Beşiktaş 0-2 away to Trabzonspor / Crystal Palace 0-5 away to Brighton Home and away records this season: Beşiktaş have won all 8 at home / Crystal Palace have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in 5 away matches
Under Vincenzo Italiano, Beşiktaş press high and move forward quickly after winning the ball. They scored the opener against Marseille after an early spell of pressure and found goals against Hoffenheim through second-half turnovers and transitions. Crystal Palace have recently stuck with a 3-4-2-1 under Pierre Sage. Sage has spoken about both keeping possession and attacking the space left when Beşiktaş push forward (Crystal Palace’s official website, October 21). The starting line-ups and defensive positions early in the match should show which approach Palace will prioritise.
Absences will affect both teams’ attacking plans. Beşiktaş will be without Orkun Kökçü, who handles forward passes through the middle and takes corners. Václav Černý, who contributes on the right and at set pieces, is also expected to miss out through injury. Italiano believes Fabio Miretti can cover Kökçü’s role and responsibilities, but after the Trabzonspor match he said Beşiktaş lacked the same final pass and tempo without Kökçü (Habertürk, October 21). Ernest Poku is expected to take Černý’s place. Poku scored against Marseille after receiving a forward pass from Olaitan, though it remains to be seen whether he can also take on the same set-piece duties as Černý.
Crystal Palace must set up their midfield without Quinton Timber, whose absence Sage confirmed. Jefferson Lerma is also listed as unavailable by the data centre. Timber contributed to midfield duels and forward passing, while Lerma offered cover at centre-back and an aerial threat at corners. Daichi Kamada is expected to drop alongside Adam Wharton, with Ismaïla Sarr and Jérémy Pino in the two attacking midfield roles (TNT Sports, October 21). If Kamada plays in midfield, a player with three goals and three assists this season will take on more defensive work. The likely back three of Chris Richards, Axel Disasi and Jaydee Canvot also have limited cover, with Takehiro Tomiyasu and Chadi Riad unavailable.
Beşiktaş play three days after their trip to Trabzonspor, while Crystal Palace return to action four days after visiting Brighton. Italiano has indicated he will make changes because of fatigue and said he would decide between Hyeon-gyu Oh and Dušan Vlahović as his starting striker close to kick-off (TNT Sports and Fanatik, October 21). Crystal Palace face Newcastle United three days after this game. Sky Sports reported on October 19 that pressure on Sage had increased, though no decision on his future has been confirmed. The schedule and mood around the club could affect selection, but neither side can afford to take this match lightly.
The clubs have never met in a competitive match. Sage once led Lyon to a 1-0 defeat against Beşiktaş, but the squads and Beşiktaş’s coach were different, so that result offers little basis for judging the tactical balance here. Ajansspor’s forecast for Istanbul at kick-off on October 21 called for 16-17°C and no chance of rain. The weather is unlikely to push either side into a different game plan.
2. Match-up analysis
Early on, the key question is how much Beşiktaş’s press disrupts Crystal Palace’s build-up. Against Marseille, Beşiktaş won the ball high during roughly the opening 20 minutes, and their 15th-minute opener came from that pressure. Crystal Palace have conceded inside the first 10 minutes in each of their last three matches (101 Great Goals, October 21). Those goals came against different opponents, so another early concession is far from a given. Sage said he would review the team’s preparation after the Brighton match, and Palace could respond by keeping more players in defensive positions from the start.
Beşiktaş are likely to target the midfield pass into Wharton. In the seventh minute against Brighton, Palace conceded after Wharton lost possession. Timber, who would normally compete alongside him, is also missing. If Beşiktaş cut off the pass to Wharton, Olaitan and the forwards can continue the attack immediately in the opposition half. If Wharton and Kamada play through the press, they can send the ball to Pino and Sarr in the space behind Beşiktaş’s advanced full-backs. That is the space Sage had in mind when he described Beşiktaş’s forward movement as an attacking opportunity.
The duel between Beşiktaş right-back Amir Murillo and Palace’s Pino on that flank offers chances to both teams. Murillo can help Beşiktaş combine and cross from the right when he pushes forward. He scored from set pieces in both of Beşiktaş’s Europa League league-phase matches. But if Beşiktaş lose the ball, Pino will have space to run into behind Murillo. Pino has also scored in both of Crystal Palace’s Europa League matches (TNT Sports, October 21). Beşiktaş’s concession against Marseille, when one pass over the defence led to an equaliser, showed the danger. The balance on this flank will depend on where Beşiktaş lose the ball and whether Ndidi and the other midfielders can stop Palace’s first forward pass.
Kökçü’s absence will matter more if Beşiktaş dominate possession for long spells. Their 19 shots and 1.19 expected goals against Trabzonspor show that many attempts did not become high-quality chances. That alone cannot establish Kökçü’s absence as the cause, but it fits with Italiano’s comments about the shortage of a final pass. If Crystal Palace keep their defensive shape, as they did against Leeds United, Beşiktaş will need Miretti, Olaitan and Leandro Trossard to find passes through the lines. If Palace concede first and push forward, Beşiktaş will not need to hold the ball for as long to attack. Against Hoffenheim, Kökçü went off at half-time, and Beşiktaş scored three second-half goals through short corners and quick transitions.
The choice up front also depends on Palace’s defensive line. Hyeon-gyu Oh scored twice against Hoffenheim by running in behind during quick transitions. If Palace’s centre-backs hold a high line, his runs could pose a direct threat. With Vlahović, Beşiktaş would put more emphasis on duels in the box and finishing from set pieces. That could be a route to goal if Palace defend deep. Whoever starts, Beşiktaş will need to adjust their finishing approach to the position of Palace’s defence.
Neither team can assume their recent set-piece goals will be repeated. Beşiktaş must replace Kökçü and Černý as set-piece takers, though Murillo remains a target in the box. Crystal Palace still have Wharton’s corners, but Lerma, who scored a headed winner against Nottingham Forest, is listed as unavailable. Palace also conceded first from a corner against Lyon and a free kick against Brighton. Beşiktaş gave up a headed goal from a corner against Hoffenheim. Set pieces offer chances, but today’s takers and targets will be different.
Crystal Palace’s midfield and back three will be tested if Beşiktaş score first. In the last 10 competitive matches, Palace went on to lose five of the six games in which they were behind at half-time, winning the other one (data centre). If Beşiktaş take the lead, Palace will have to push their attackers forward. Timber will be absent from the midfield duels alongside Wharton, and the back three have limited cover. Beşiktaş could also bring on forwards and midfielders who did not start. If Crystal Palace score first, Beşiktaş will face a chase they have not encountered at home this season. They would have to break down a compact defence without Kökçü, and their home winning run does not answer how they would handle that situation.
3. Final view and prediction
We expect Beşiktaş to press early at home, with Crystal Palace looking to win the ball and move down the flanks. The balance of the match leans towards Beşiktaş. Even without Kökçü and Černý, they can still win the ball and transition through Olaitan and the striker. Crystal Palace are missing Timber in the midfield where they will face that press, and Lerma is also unavailable as an aerial threat at set pieces and a defensive cover option. If Beşiktaş take the lead, Palace will have to push forward, while their limited cover at centre-back could make it harder to cope with further attacks in the second half.
The market gives weight to Beşiktaş’s home record but remains cautious about a big margin because Kökçü is missing and the starting line-up may change. We differ on the prospect of a second Beşiktaş goal after they take the lead. If Crystal Palace push forward in search of an equaliser, Beşiktaş can attack through turnovers and transitions, which rely less on Kökçü’s final pass. Pino could exploit the space behind Murillo, and Palace could also find a way back through a short corner, so the visitors still have a chance to score.
Our score prediction is Beşiktaş 3-1. We expect them to take the lead inside the first 30 minutes through a high press and turnover or a set piece aimed at Murillo, then for Olaitan and the forwards to attack the space behind Crystal Palace as they push for an equaliser. Palace’s goal could come from a Pino transition or a short corner. If Crystal Palace keep their defensive shape from the start and prevent an early goal, or if Pino scores first, Beşiktaş would have to break down a compact defence without Kökçü. In that case, the conditions for a two-goal Beşiktaş win would not be there.
