Two games with the same plot: a team that lives on forced turnovers meets an opponent whose own ball security leaks for reasons that are built into its roster or its schedule. In Suwon, KT are missing their second creator and lean on one import to do everything, while Wonju DB run harder than anyone in the league. In Shiga, a pressing home side meets a Nagasaki group on its third game in five days, without the big man who used to hold its glass. In both games the turnover battle should matter more than the shooting.
Suwon KT vs Wonju DB. DB win by running. They lead the league in fast-break points and points off turnovers and score more than anyone, even though their three-point shooting is among the worst in the league. KT win through isolation from Bass, who has been scoring close to thirty a night at home, and through size on the glass with Porter and Ha Yoon-ki. The problem is the ball. With Kim Sun-hyung out until December, KT have the fewest assists and among the most turnovers, and Bass himself had six in the last game. Their losses came with 13 to 17 giveaways, including 13 against a Mobis side that hardly pressed, so the leak is their own.
The key matchup is Alvano's pressure on KT's thin guard line. DB forced 18 the last time out, and even counting DB's own turnovers the net still runs their way by two or three a game, and they convert each one far better than KT can. On the other end, DB now have more length to throw at Bass, with Jeong Hyo-geun and Kim Bo-bae back in the rotation. KT's rebounding edge is real, but part of it comes from how often they miss. I expect DB to build a lead through the first half and then grind it out in the half court. That's why I'm siding with Wonju DB to win on the road.
Shiga vs Nagasaki. Shiga force turnovers every night, 17 or more in seven of nine games, and at home they have scored 85 or more in all five games. Their usual cost is the glass, where bigger frontcourts have beaten them. Nagasaki can't load that window this time: without Akil Mitchell they have been out-rebounded in nine of ten, and Aguilar is a rim protector, not a rebounding engine. Nagasaki gave the ball away 15 to 17 times in four league games, and their only clean night came against the weakest side in the league.
Nagasaki want a slow game and a three-point shootout, and that is a real route against a Shiga defence that allows plenty of attempts. But it is a shooting night, not a structural edge. Shiga should push from the start, collect turnovers in the first half and stretch it as Nagasaki's legs go in the fourth quarter, with a full week of rest waiting for Shiga afterwards. That's why I'm backing Shiga at home to win with some room to spare.
