Both of these games pair two defences with an obvious crack. In Sittard, a low-possession home side that lets in shots by the dozen meets an Excelsior back line that keeps handing out penalties and own goals. At Old Trafford, a United side with no screening midfielder faces a Bournemouth high line that has already been run through this season. In each match, each team has its own way to score.
Sittard under Buijs barely see the ball, even at home. They had 35 to 43 percent against Twente, Ajax and the side they beat 3-1, they create little and they concede volume: 24 shots and 13 corners at NEC. They still score, through Descotte running in behind, Zeefuik holding it up and 't Zand's dead balls. Excelsior have more of the ball but give away cheap goals: a goalkeeper error for a penalty at Heerenveen, then an own goal and two penalties against Groningen. Sittard's absentees were already missing for the last two games, which finished 1-1 and 2-2.
United are without Mainoo and Ugarte, so nobody protects the back four, and without Shaw and Dorgu on the left. They have been out-created in four straight games, including at home to Tottenham, and Baleba gave the ball away deep for a goal at Como. Bournemouth's press goes straight at that unit, and they have penalties and free kicks from Kluivert and Adli as a second route.
United have a route too. Mbeumo and Amad run in behind a high line that Chelsea broke twice in the first three minutes, and United have scored in eight of their last ten. Bournemouth come in on under three days' rest after Milan, so the late stage should open up for both sides.
That's why I'm siding with an open game in Sittard and with both United and Bournemouth getting on the scoresheet.
