Minnesota arrives with the stronger actual rows of the two sides, and Cleveland arrives with a visible habit of giving the ball away. The match looks closer than the market's view of a clear home side, with rest and home court pulling one way and rebounding and three-point volume pulling the other.
Minnesota won its three regular-season games by 22 to 25 points, with 49 to 61 rebounds and 14 to 21 threes a night. Cleveland lost at Philadelphia, then beat Brooklyn at home while turning the ball over 23 and 21 times and allowing 41 points in one fourth quarter.
The key matchups are the glass, where Minnesota has a clear edge, and the turnover battle, where Minnesota's steals can turn Cleveland's sloppiness into transition points. Cleveland's route is the free-throw line and second chances, because its three-point shooting is lower.
Minnesota is on the second night of a back-to-back, which is the main worry for a legs-heavy three-point team, and its shooting may cool from an unusually high rate. DiVincenzo has been out since mid-October, so all three wins already come without him.
I expect Minnesota to start fast, Cleveland to cut in with free throws, and the second half to turn on turnovers. That's why I'm siding with Minnesota to take this one outright.
