This Gulf Cup final looks like a game of one goal at most, and I think the side that has to find that goal is the host. Saudi Arabia have built the tournament on defence, but their attack has a habit of creating shots without turning them into goals against organised opponents. The UAE have a clear, repeatable way to score and have rarely been opened up themselves.
Saudi Arabia kept a clean sheet in every game on the way here, which is a real strength. Going forward it is a different story. In the semi-final against Qatar they had far more shots than their opponent for long stretches and still played out a goalless 120 minutes before winning on penalties. In the World Cup games I looked at, their attack averaged about 0.4 expected goals per match against Spain, Uruguay and Cape Verde. The 6 goals in the group stage came against weaker sides.
The UAE scored 8 in the group, but the more useful detail is how they score. Camara's headers from wide deliveries produced the winner in the semi-final against Oman, and he is expected to lead the line again as the lone striker in a 4-2-3-1. The UAE have conceded only once in their four games, and several defenders and midfielders were rested in the group game against Qatar, so the back line comes in fresh. They also missed a penalty against Oman, so the attack has more in it than the 1-0 suggests.
The market has moved toward a tighter game since the opening, with the draw getting shorter and Saudi Arabia drifting. That fits what I see: a final where the home crowd and the settled defence matter, but where the hosts still need a goal from a set piece or a UAE mistake to get ahead. Settlement is on the 90 minutes, so the penalty shoot-out that decides the trophy does not change the result of this slip.
Lineups were not confirmed when I wrote this. The expected UAE side has Camara up front and the usual back four, and Saudi Arabia's expected side has Owais in goal and Al-Buraikan leading the attack.
