FC Tokyo's central protection and quick forward attacks fit together well in this matchup. Kashiwa want to move receivers around the ball and release their wing-backs, which makes the cover behind those movements important. The decisive spaces should appear as possession changes hands.
Nagakura has recently completed attacks through a central carry, a right-channel pass and a high recovery. Those routes meet a Kashiwa side whose advancing players twice lost the protection behind them against Nagoya. Tokyo also have Tawaratsumida's corner delivery to Scholz as a separate way into the game.
Tokyo's recent defensive and midfield replacements have already operated around Scholz and Inamura. Kashiwa goalkeeper Wakahara's clearance is unresolved after his latest concussion substitution; I am not assigning an advantage to his potential replacement. The stronger evidence concerns the outfield passing and cover.
The opening should be contested, with Tokyo able to let Kashiwa advance before accelerating into the next space. Later attacking options include Omori, Sato and Tokiwa from the recent squad. That's why I'm siding with FC Tokyo to win: their completed attacking routes meet a specific weakness in Kashiwa's recovery.
