Three matches, each shaped by a change in personnel that the long-run numbers have not caught up with. Sassuolo have lost both first-choice centre-backs and look a different side without them. Como have been winning with the XI the market still treats as weakened, against a Torino side missing its defensive screen. In Cologne, a striker-less Köln meet a Union side that has settled into a deep block, and that shape points to a game of few chances.
Sassuolo against Lazio. Sassuolo's good home record was built with Idzes and Leysen at the back. Since both went off injured, the stand-in pair of Caleta-Car and Odenthal has lost at Frosinone and at Como, facing sixteen shots on target across the two games. Lazio's run has come from an unchanged midfield trio, with Noslin already the starting striker, so their absences hardly touch the XI. Lazio's own chance quality is modest, and Berardi breaking behind Tavares is a real route for the home side. Still, the side with the steadier XI faces the shakier back line. That's why I'm siding with Lazio not to lose.
Torino against Como. Como won three in a row without Kean and Diao, and their second halves have been their strongest spell even with a crowded schedule. Torino lose Mandragora, the player who screens the space where Nico Paz likes to receive, and their win at Parma came while being outshot heavily. Torino's best plan is to score first through Simeone and sit in a five, which has worked against Como before. Even so, the stronger level and the missing screen point one way. I'm with Como here.
Köln against Union Berlin. Köln have no fit striker, and the same front pair drew blank against Schalke, where their own coach said they did not create enough. Union have conceded once in three games behind a deep block, but they also made very few shots on target in that spell. With a level score leading to extra time, neither side needs to chase late. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring match in Cologne.
