Two matches where the results so far mislead unless you look at who they came against. Dortmund and Werder met at the same ground with the same coaches less than three weeks ago, and both sides' goals then came from routes that are still open. In Turkish volleyball, Spor Toto's losing run came against the league's best, while Onikisubat's long winning run came almost entirely below the top flight.
In that league meeting Dortmund dominated the ball and created plenty, while Werder scored twice without needing possession: once from an interception of Dortmund's build-up and once from a set piece. Werder have scored in every league game this season, but their back four leaks too. Their only fit left-back, Deman, is a doubt, and Thioune has confirmed rotation after a short turnaround. Dortmund lose Bensebaini to suspension, so Gadou comes into the back three facing Fullkrug's aerial threat, whether from the start or off the bench. Once Dortmund lead, the cup format forces Werder forward. I'm siding with both teams finding the net.
Spor Toto's recent defeats came against Halkbank, Ziraat, Fenerbahce and Altekma, mostly in five sets after they had been ahead. Onikisubat, newly promoted, won one set from seven in their two top-flight matches and lost an opening set heavily at Galatasaray. Reports from their match against Gebze describe their reception struggling under serve pressure, and that is the route Spor Toto's attack around Herrera and Camejo uses, with Kiyak setting. The home crowd and Spor Toto's heavy legs after two five-setters make it a contest, but the level gap points one way. I'm siding with Spor Toto.
