Torino's Belghali-to-Simeone route gives Como a clear defensive task, while Como can move through Paz and the left side to reach Douvikas. Köln can use El Mala and Bülter to press Union's compact block, but its recent possession has produced too few clean box touches. In both games, the first pass after a midfield recovery determines whether the wide runner faces an organised defence. Later changes can matter because each side has already shown a route to fresh supply.
Torino's recent wins included Perri's eight saves at Parma and goals helped by opponent mistakes. Como have repeatedly reached Douvikas through Paz and left-side delivery; he played the full Sassuolo game and finished twice after halftime changes improved that lane. Mandragora started Torino's last match before injury and is now out, leaving the central screen and first outlet to a projected replacement. Como's Kean and Liberali missed their last match, so their returns are not needed for the observed attacking chain. That's why I'm siding with Como to win.
Köln had 14 shots against Schalke but only six from inside the box and no goal; Wagner identified the missing last pass and clear striker. Union can screen Jóhannesson's central reception, then reach Skarke or Burcu behind a fullback and attack a restart's second contact. Dallinga remains out and Ache missed Köln's last match, while Union's Burcu and Burke both played despite doubtful tags. Juranović is absent, though Querfeld has already supplied defensive cover for Uduokhai. Köln's current finishing chain makes a large separation harder to sustain, so I'm siding with Union Berlin to stay close.
