This is a bullpen game wearing a starter's name tag. Dustin May has not gone past three innings in any of his last three starts, and Nick Pivetta has been held to 3.1 and 4.2 innings in his last two, so roughly half of this game belongs to relievers on both sides. The first two games of the series were settled late, and the season numbers point to the team that has been better at scoring and at keeping runs off the board.
The series so far tells the story. Game 1 had runs in the 2nd, 3rd and 7th, and game 2 had runs in the 1st, 5th, 7th and a two-run 9th that ended it on a walk-off. Between them there were five errors, and both games were one-run finishes. San Diego has scored five runs in the two games, gone 3-for-18 with runners in scoring position and left 20 men on base. Milwaukee got to the San Diego bullpen both times.
Over the season Milwaukee scored 826 and allowed 614, with a 103-59 record. San Diego scored 713 and allowed 677, at 91-71. Milwaukee comes in having won nine of its last ten. In the last game its bullpen threw 4.0 innings on 62 pitches, while San Diego's threw 3.2 innings on 80. May also has history here: three starts against San Diego this year, 22 innings, three runs.
San Diego is not a soft landing, and the home side has real arguments. The Padres are 53-30 at Petco Park, Pivetta had a 1.45 ERA over four September starts after nearly five months out, and they won all three games against Milwaukee at home in August, including 11-2. Their season is on the line, which a stat sheet cannot measure. Even so, with both starters on short leashes, I put more weight on who has been winning the late innings and who has been producing runs all year than on the names in the first inning.
I kept this to the simple winner of the game. A one-run margin line is a coin flip on a single swing, and the series has already shown how often that swing comes late.
