Both of these Korean games turn on the same thing: one side has lost the big body its game was built around, and the other still has its frontcourt intact. In Yongin, Samsung open the WKBL season without the interior hub and the perimeter stopper who made them even with Hana last spring. In Daegu, Anyang arrive without the centre whose rebounding decided the last meeting. In both games, the side with the size meets a side that now has to win from the perimeter.
Samsung Blue Minx vs Hana Bank. Last season Samsung played Hana roughly level and beat them three straight times in the April playoffs, including two close wins at this venue. Those wins ran through Bae Hye-yoon's post play and passing, Lee Hae-ran's scoring and Yoon Ye-bin's defence. Over the summer Bae and Kim Dan-bi retired, Yoon left for KB, and the forward who came back in return, Lee Da-yeon, is still out after foot surgery. Hana kept everything that mattered: Saki as the inside-outside ace, Jin An at centre and Park So-hee at guard.
The key matchup is Jin An against a Samsung frontcourt with no named true centre, and Saki against wings that no longer have Yoon to guard her. Samsung's answer is pace. They have a young, fast roster built around Lee Hae-ran, Kang Yu-rim and two new Asian-quota players, and they will try to drag a big Hana lineup into a running game, especially early at home.
I expect Samsung to start with energy and Hana's size to tell as the game settles, through the glass and twos at the rim. Hana also have a ten-deep rotation that suits a second-half grind against a thin rotation. Preseason pointed the same way: Hana won three of four, while Samsung won one and took a heavy loss to BNK. Samsung's playoff wins over Hana came from a roster that no longer exists. That's why I'm siding with Hana Bank on the road.
KoGas vs Anyang JungKwanJang. Anyang's good start and their edge in this rivalry were built with John Mooney, who took 17 rebounds when they won in Daegu in early October. He has not played since mid-October and is on the injured list until December. Without him Anyang have lost three straight, were out-rebounded badly at SK, and gave up 92 and 95 points at home to KT and DB. Their guards and wings still score well and protect the ball, which is why the losses were close.
KoGas don't win with threes. They have been ice cold from deep lately. Their engine is Kebe Aluma and Ra Gun-ah on the glass and at the rim: they out-rebounded DB 50-32 and Mobis 36-21 in their last two home wins, and Aluma got to the line again and again against DB. The middle quarters, when both imports can play, are where that size meets Lashawn Thomas, whose minutes are still being managed after a bone bruise, and Davion Reid, a perimeter forward who picked up early fouls against KT.
This should be close. Anyang's way through is a big three-point night from Byun Jun-hyung, Park Ji-hoon, Moon Yu-hyun and Rens Abando. KoGas only need their usual glass edge to keep it level, even with cold shooting, as they showed when they beat DB in overtime on a poor shooting night. The rebounding battle that decided the last meeting now runs the other way. That's why I'm siding with KoGas at home.
