Romania's three straight defeats in this group aren't bad luck. The chances they've given away match the scorelines, and for this match they lose both of their first-choice centre-backs to suspension. Sweden's injury list looks long, but the biggest names were already missing when they beat Poland and outplayed Bosnia. I see this coming down to a makeshift Romanian back line against a Swedish attack that has already learned to work without Isak.
Look at Romania's last two games. They lost 0-6 in Poland, giving up chances worth 3.52 expected goals, then lost 2-4 at home to Bosnia (2.59). That's 12 goals conceded in three group games, so it isn't a few deflections. Now Drăgușin and Ghiță are both suspended, and the expected pairing in the middle is Coubiș and Eissat.
At the other end Romania haven't created much at all. Their own expected goals in the three group games were 0.51, 0.95 and 0.58. Against Bosnia they had 56% of the ball and still lost by two.
Sweden lost Isak, Ekdal and Holm from the camp in late September. Since then they beat Poland 3-1 and drew 1-1 in Bosnia while restricting the hosts to almost nothing (0.11 expected goals). Gyökeres and Zeneli are set to lead the line, and Potter has said openly that he wants the win and 10 points.
Romania need points to stay up, and this is their first official home match with fans present, with around 50,000 expected. That pushes them to chase the game, which is exactly the kind of space a weakened back line struggles to cover.
