Both games turn on what happens after the first scoring burst. In Riga, Zelli's outside creation meets Olimpija's strength around the basket. In Paris, home pressure and second shots meet a Virtus team with several ball handlers. The response after a defensive adjustment looks more revealing than either opening quarter.
Zelli have found scoring from Shungu, Perkins and Varnas rather than relying on one guard. Their frontcourt also has Cavars back: he started and played 23 minutes against Tartu after missing the Rostock game. Across from him, Hurt's inside finishing and Jayce Johnson's work on the offensive glass give Olimpija a strong possession route.
Rostock checked Zelli's early shooting with a second-quarter run, yet Zelli found offense again. Olimpija took an advantage into the fourth quarter at Siroki but finished with 19 turnovers despite 14 offensive rebounds. With Cavars helping finish defensive possessions and several guards able to restart the attack, I'm siding with Rigas Zelli to stay close.
Paris can create extra attempts through pressure and the work of Dokossi and Rhoden on the boards. Hifi played 19 minutes against Strasbourg before hurting his ankle, while Rhoden returned for 21 minutes and helped Paris pass to other scorers. Virtus counter with Carr, Frazier and Moore handling and scoring, plus Baldasso and Klintman as further outlets.
Paris forced 19 ASVEL turnovers but still lost as the visitors found late scoring. Virtus have shown a recovery against Bayern and closed strongly against Venezia with tighter defense and ball care. That gives them a route through Paris's first pressure spell and into the final possessions, so I'm siding with Virtus Bologna to stay close.
