Two very different goal pictures sit on this slip. In Eindhoven, PSV's attacking end has been taken apart and Feyenoord travel without much of a habit of creating against strong sides. In Sinsheim, Hoffenheim's press meets a Leverkusen build-up good enough to beat it, and that kind of meeting produces chances at both ends.
PSV v Feyenoord first. Bosz's PSV still press high and still leave space behind their full-backs, so this is not a closed team. But the players who turn that press into goals are missing. Plea is out for the year, Pepi trained but is not fit to start, Mijnans, their most frequent midfield scorer, is suspended for league games, and Wanner is out. Perisic has been playing as a makeshift nine, and with this group PSV's chance creation has sat well below their early-season level even against mid-table opposition.
Feyenoord under Van Bronckhorst are happy without the ball against good teams and break down the right through Read and Hadj Moussa, into the space Kostic leaves. That is their best route, but away against a strong possession side at Betis they produced very little. They lead the table, a draw suits them, and when they have led recently against AZ and Betis they sat and countered.
The flow I expect is a cagey first half with PSV short of a box presence, then a second half where whoever trails pushes. One side can reach two, but it needs both to keep scoring to turn this into a shootout, and PSV's current front line has not shown that. That's why I'm siding with a lower-scoring game in Eindhoven.
Hoffenheim v Leverkusen is the opposite. Ilzer's side press high at home and play direct, with Kramaric as the creative hub and Coufal's long throws as a weapon. Leverkusen under Carles Martinez keep the ball through Aleix Garcia and break lines through the Maza and Schick link, with quick runners wide and defenders who score at set pieces. If the press wins the ball, Hoffenheim get chances; if it is beaten, Maza and Schick have space behind it.
Leverkusen's absentees have already missed the last three games, and the side still scored freely without them, so their scoring routes are proven. Hoffenheim have leaked late in transition repeatedly, and Leverkusen have not managed leads calmly away from home. Neither side wants a draw. That's why I'm siding with goals in Sinsheim.
