Two Champions League games where the absence lists point in opposite directions. In Porto, Napoli arrive without a single recognised full-back, three centre-backs or their deep-lying playmaker, so every protective role in their team is gone. In Eindhoven, PSV's reputation and a recent seven-goal win hide how little their striker-less attack has created against Champions League defences. One home side gets a stage built for its usual pattern, and the other is rated higher than its European numbers support.
Porto against Napoli first. Porto win domestically by keeping the ball and scoring late through runners off the bench, with Sainz, Andre Silva and Samu all scoring in the second half recently. Napoli concede exactly there: eight of their last thirteen goals against came after the hour, and that was with a fuller squad. Allegri is expected to field a five-man defence with the wingers Politano and Lang at wing-back, so attackers will be defending one against one on the flanks.
Napoli's way out would be the counter or a set piece through Rrahmani or Marin. Their build-up has lost Lobotka, though, and De Bruyne is doubtful. When De Bruyne went off at Juventus, they created almost nothing. Porto's poor European results came against City, PSV and Betis, all sides that pressed and defended far better than this patched-up Napoli can. I expect a tight first half, then Porto's fresher bench taking over late. That's why I'm backing Porto to win.
Now PSV against Brugge. Without a natural striker, PSV have produced only modest chance totals against Champions League defences, and they are also missing Schouten, the midfielder who screens their back line. Brugge have scored in twenty straight games, and Forbs and Tresoldi are built to run into the space behind a high line. PSV's press and shot volume are real, and Brugge's defence does leak. Once both sides are measured against opponents of their own level, though, this looks close to even, with home advantage the only real gap.
I expect PSV to have most of the ball and Brugge to break, with goals possible at both ends. That's why I'm siding with Brugge to avoid defeat in Eindhoven.
