Al Nassr arrive in Tashkent as the stronger squad, but this is a very different team on the road than the one piling up goals at home. Their recent run was built almost entirely in their own stadium, and their away performances under Ange Postecoglou have been ordinary even with Cristiano Ronaldo on the pitch. Now Ronaldo and Simakan stay out by the coach's own choice, with the next league match in mind. Pakhtakor, meanwhile, have already gone toe to toe with two Saudi sides in this competition.
The contrast is plain. At home in this run Al Nassr produced expected goals of 2.20, 2.28 and 3.66 in the matches I read. In the four away matches I read, the numbers were 1.65 against 1.84 at Al Ittihad, 1.08 against 0.38 at Al Khaleej, 1.28 against 2.05 at Al Ain and 0.55 against 1.21 at Al-Faisaly. That is five goals scored and eight conceded, with one win, one draw and two defeats. When they get opened up, it is through space behind their shape: Al Ain beat them 4-0 with less of the ball.
Pakhtakor play a 4-2-3-1 that crosses a lot and earns territory. They took 19 shots against Al Qadsiah at home, with most of the danger after the break, and had 13 shots and 10 corners in Iraq. They drew with both Saudi opponents thanks to goals at the 86th and 89th minutes that came through their substitutes. The finishing is not sharp, with only one shot on target in their last continental match, but the pressure they build is real.
The key duel is Joao Felix against Pakhtakor's double pivot. Felix had four assists against Al Kholood, and if he finds the pockets, Al Nassr can still create. The second is at the other end: Pakhtakor's wide delivery and Aymen Hussein in the air against a reshaped back line, with Ayman Yahya expected at left-back and Boushal on the right. Hussein won four aerial duels in Iraq, and Khamdamov and Alizhonov both came off the bench and went straight to crossing.
Ronaldo's absence matters less for creating than for finishing. He scored five of Al Nassr's twelve goals in the four run matches I read, and he is the man who pins centre-backs in the box. Al-Hamdan can score, but he has often done it in a shared or substitute role. Simakan's absence may be the quieter loss: he played the full match last time, winning aerial duels and making five clearances, and his expected replacement Al-Amri was an unused substitute in that game. Samu Costa's reported return helps protect that line. Coman changes little, since he has hardly played during this run. Al Nassr's travelling bench also looks thin up front.
I expect Al Nassr to have more of the ball, with Pakhtakor pressing early at home. Their away first halves have been slow, so a level score or a one-goal gap at the break looks normal. After that, Pakhtakor need a first win in this competition and will send on fresh wide players and push their fullbacks. That leaves Mane and Angelo space to run into, but it also keeps the match alive deep into the second half, which is when Pakhtakor have done their best work.
Al Nassr may well still be the likelier winner. The question I care about is the margin, and a comfortable away win asks more than their road form has shown, especially with their finisher and a starting centre-back left at rest. Pakhtakor have lost by two or more only once in their last twenty matches. That's why I'm siding with Pakhtakor to keep this close.
