Two Serie A matches with very different shapes. At the Olimpico, Parma give up goals in exactly the way Lazio like to attack, and Parma have lost the two forwards who scored their last winner. In Naples, both defences have been changed this week in the places that matter, and both coaches have reasons to keep attacking.
Lazio vs Parma first. Gilardino has had two league games in charge of Parma and lost both 0-3. Both times they conceded early: three goals by the half hour at Inter, two before the 25th minute against Torino. Torino's goals came from crosses from the right wing-back. Lazio build their attacks down the flanks, with Tavares overlapping on the left and Isaksen on the right, so Parma's weak spot sits right where Lazio are strongest.
The absences push the same way. Almqvist and Elphege, who made Parma's winner against Genoa, are both out, and Parma create only about 0.8 expected goals a game. Lazio do lose Rovella at the base of midfield, which will slow their passing against a set block, and the Curva Nord is boycotting the match. But the goalkeeper situation is not new: Mandas already played in the wins over Monza and Juventus.
The flow I expect is Lazio on the ball against a 3-4-1-2. Once a cross or a quick wide move finally breaks through, Parma have to come out, and their attack is too thin to hurt Lazio on the break. Gattuso's Lazio kept pushing when ahead at Juventus and against Monza, and the bench has been delivering late: Pinamonti and Dele-Bashiru were both involved in late goals in recent wins. That's why I'm backing Lazio to win with something to spare.
Napoli vs Roma is about two defences that are not what their numbers say. Roma's league record (three goals conceded in seven) was built with Svilar in goal and Kone screening the back line. Both are out, and with Gollini in goal Roma conceded three goals from corners against Real Madrid. Napoli field a new centre-back pairing, with Rrahmani reported on the bench after flu, and they face Roma's man-to-man press and Malen's runs in behind.
Napoli's own attack is better than ten goals in seven suggests; they had 29 shots at Venezia. De Bruyne can turn out of man-marking, and McTominay and Hojlund are threats from set pieces. Roma will miss Dybala and Pellegrini, but their league creation has still been high.
The key is the game state. Napoli are nine points off the top and need the win at home. When Allegri's Napoli led Bodo they dropped deep and let Bodo build big chances in the second half. Whoever goes behind has time, motivation and bench attackers to answer. I'm siding with goals in Naples.
