The central contest is the space between Lyon's midfield and defence. Palace have direct combinations and second-ball runners who can work in that space, while Lyon are rebuilding the connection between their midfield and forwards. The useful comparison is how those units function, rather than the teams' recent winning scorelines.
Wharton and Timber give Palace an established route into Kamada and Pino around Strand Larsen. Against Forest, that combination produced a goal through direct play and second balls, while Pino followed up Strand Larsen's saved effort. Lyon allowed opponents to receive behind their midfield at Lens when Tolisso advanced too far from Morton, making this a specific opening for Palace's existing attack.
Openda's injury removes both a player who drops to connect passes and a runner into depth. Fonseca has confirmed Nakamura will start, so Lyon must build a different forward relationship. Palace retain their central attacking connections; Lerma's European registration omission changes their defensive cover and removes a recent corner target, while Disasi is available again. Benítez has already demonstrated close-range shot-stopping in Henderson's absence.
I expect the opening exchanges to revolve around first passes and the next loose ball, with Palace looking to connect quickly around their centre-forward. Their compact performance at Leeds supplies a separate example of protecting the back line before increasing their attacking activity after the interval. That combination of a direct attacking matchup and demonstrated defensive organisation is why I'm siding with Crystal Palace to come out ahead.
