Two hosts with the cleaner story in front of them: the Dodgers get Tarik Skubal against an Atlanta bullpen game, and Atletico-MG face a Bragantino side that rarely scores away. In both games the visitors have a clear way to make it ugly, but the home side holds the stronger hand on what I read today.
Dodgers vs Braves, NLDS Game 1. Skubal comes in at 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA and threw seven scoreless innings in his last start. Atlanta plans to open with Brent Suter and cover the rest with relievers, and the previews say Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle are not available for Game 1. The Braves bullpen threw 5.2 innings and 87 pitches over the last three days, while the Dodgers pen has not pitched in that stretch. Over the last ten games Atlanta hit .214 with 82 strikeouts; the Dodgers hit .284 with 72.
Atletico-MG vs Bragantino, Brazil Serie A, postponed round-21 game at Arena MRV, kickoff 06:30 KST on 4 October. Atletico are 7 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss at home with 23 goals scored, and they have had 14 days off. Bragantino sit 10th with 2 wins from 11 away games and scored one goal or fewer in 6 of their last 10. They are also without Davi Gomes.
Atletico are not at full strength either: goalkeeper Everson and centre-backs Tressoldi and Vitor Hugo are out, and that back line is the reason I did not go for the cleanest, most aggressive way into this game. Five of their 13 home games ended level, and four of the last twelve meetings were draws, so I wanted protection for that outcome.
The two legs go together because neither price is enough on its own, and the two games do not depend on each other. One is a pitching mismatch driven by who is available on the mound, the other is a home side with good results against a visitor that struggles for goals.
