Two home sides here meet opponents whose problems sit exactly where the hosts do their damage. Levante's open, pressing home game runs into an Atletico midfield that is patched together again. Stuttgart arrive at Leverkusen tired up front and without the man who controls their midfield. Both matches should be decided after half-time, when legs and benches start to count.
Levante under Luis Castro are a different team at the Ciutat. All four home games show at least 1.95 expected goals for and 1.90 against, with totals of seven, six, six and four against Betis, Barcelona, Sevilla and Bilbao. That is same-level opposition, not volume against weak sides.
Atletico are no longer a low block. They keep the ball and win with depth, and Koke and Cardoso are both out, so the Hjulmand and Barrios pair must handle Levante's press. That pair has played together already, but Barrios has been withdrawn early in both league games, and Stuttgart showed in the Champions League how a turnover hurts this build-up.
The key point is how the rotation works. Simeone has benched Alvarez on the Saturday before his last two Tuesday Champions League games, and Bayern come next. That quietens the first half and strengthens the second, with Alvarez, Lookman and Giuliano available. Levante do not stop attacking from behind, as Sevilla and Barcelona found, and Etta Eyong gives them a late route of their own.
Levante's fast front line attacks a changed pivot, and Atletico's passers attack a home defence that always gives chances. Each side's strength lands on the other's weak unit. That's why I'm siding with goals at the Ciutat.
At the BayArena the deciding matchup is Stuttgart's man press against Garcia's first pass. It is a real threat, and Nurnberg's press led 2-0 there on Wednesday. But that first half was played by a rotated front. Schick, Maza and Fernandez came on at the break and the match turned one-way.
That is the hidden difference in a rest gap that looks level. Those three played 45 minutes. Stuttgart's Demirovic, Leweling, El Khannouss, Mittelstadt and Promel played 90 on the road, Undav 89, and a trip to Galatasaray follows in three days.
Stuttgart also concede 2.43 expected goals a league game, worse than their goals against suggest, and they now lose Stiller, who supplied both assists at Paderborn, and Vagnoman, their best right-sided creator. Assignon comes in on exactly the side where Gutierrez and Maza like to work. Garcia's corners, which gave Tapsoba two goals on Wednesday, add a route that needs no open play.
I expect a demanding first half hour, then Leverkusen growing as the press fades, with the goal arriving around or after half-time from the left or a corner. They have scored eight and conceded one in three home league games. That's why I'm siding with Leverkusen to win.
