Austria keep making chances, and Kosovo's back five has already shown it can be opened up. I'm leaning on that and on how thin Austria look at the back and in midfield right now. This looks like a game where both teams get their moments rather than a tight, closed contest.
In the first meeting Austria won 3-1, and the goals came in three different ways: a free kick, a quick break just before half-time, and a substitute's link-up play. Kosovo also got a penalty and missed a couple of good chances late on, so the scoreline was not a fluke of one lucky bounce.
Austria's recent games back this up. Their shot numbers have been high in each one, with real chance quality behind them, and all three of their latest matches had four goals in them. At Ireland they still conceded twice, which tells me they are not shutting teams down while several midfielders are missing.
Kosovo's side of it is less clear. Their main striker is a doubt and they scored nothing against Israel despite plenty of shots, mostly low-quality ones. But they have shown they can create chances against Austria and at home, and there is a question mark over the goalkeeper too. One goal from a counter, a set piece or a penalty is enough to keep the game open.
The lineups are not out yet, so this is built on the squad picture and how both teams have played in recent weeks.
