Game 4 in Gwangju comes down to whose arms are fresher in the middle innings, and on that count the two staffs are not equal. In the B.League, Kyoto meet a Shinshu side that lives on threes but keeps giving away possessions and fourth quarters. Both games turn on fatigue and depth rather than on star power. In both, one side has a working plan for the second half and the other is hoping its early momentum lasts.
KIA vs Samsung. This series has been settled in innings five through seven. Samsung won Games 2 and 3 when their left-handed core of Gu Ja-wook, Diaz and Choi Hyung-woo got to KIA's left-handed relievers. KIA won Game 1 when Naile shut that same lineup down, giving up one hit in 4.1 innings.
The starters come in very differently. Naile threw only 57 pitches in Game 1, while Fedde threw 94 and gave up five runs with two homers. Fedde has lost all three of his starts against KIA this year. On the same short rest, Naile is the one more likely to get through the order twice.
The bigger difference is in the bullpen. Veteran lefty Yang Hyeon-jong hasn't pitched yet this postseason and is fully rested to cover several middle innings. That lets KIA keep the relievers who struggled in Games 2 and 3 out of the dangerous spots, and Jeon Sang-hyun and Jung Hae-young have thrown very little to close it out. Samsung are already without closer Kim Jae-yoon, and their two most-used relievers, Lee Seung-min and Won Tae-in, would be pitching on back-to-back days. Their manager has said their condition has to be checked first, and he still has a Game 5 to protect them for. That's why I'm siding with KIA to force a decider.
Shinshu vs Kyoto. Kyoto win from the inside and on possessions. Jackson, Phillips and Caloiaro go to work against Lee, a single foul-prone big who picked up four fouls in each of his last two games and has no true second big behind him. Shinshu turn the ball over far more than they force turnovers, giving away about four and a half possessions a game.
Shibuta is out for Kyoto, which lowers their three-point ceiling. His replacement Kishimoto scored 18 last time out, though, and Shinshu don't force enough turnovers to punish the extra risk at guard. Kyoto have already won without Shibuta on a night they made just 6 of 28 threes, by winning the glass and the turnover battle.
Shinshu can start well behind Harris and Daum's volume from deep, but their leads haven't held up. They lost the fourth quarter to Tokyo, Utsunomiya and Kobe while leaning on Daum and Harris for heavy minutes. Kyoto's coach spreads the minutes across eleven players. That's why I'm backing Kyoto to win.
