Two Champions League Elite ties in Japan, and both are decided by how a possession side meets a team that would rather not have the ball. At Kashima, a home side that wins by volume faces a Pohang team that spends away games defending and leaks shots in bulk. In Osaka, Gamba's attacking style creates chances against non-J1 blocks but keeps leaving space behind for counters. Buriram are built to use exactly that space.
Kashima first. In their last six home games they scored 16, and every home win was by two goals or more: 7-1 against Newcastle, 2-0 against Gamba and Nagasaki, 3-1 against Kofu. Their goals come from several players. Cavric scored a hat-trick against Newcastle, and Tokuda, Suzuki and Leo Ceara have all been on the scoresheet. Pohang have looked very different on the road. They had 29% of the ball at Ulsan, gave up 20 or more shots in three of their last four games, and have not won any of their last six away games, scoring five and conceding twelve.
The key matchup is Kashima's press against Pohang's build-up, which has broken down under pressure in three straight games. Pohang's way back into it is early: a Nishiya corner or a fast break from Wanderson or Teixeira into the space Kashima's full-backs leave behind. Ceara is back in training after a muscle problem, but Kashima's attack doesn't depend on him. Coach Oniki has called this a very important match, so there is no sign that Kashima will hold back.
Once Kashima go ahead, Pohang have no reason to sit. They are on zero points and have to chase, and that is when Kashima's home wins have tended to grow in the second half. That's why I'm siding with Kashima to win by a margin.
Now Osaka. Gamba produced more than two expected goals against both of the weaker sides they have met in this competition and scored four and three. At the other end, they have conceded in nine of their last ten. Most of those goals came from teams that let them have the ball and then broke quickly: Shimizu had a third of the ball and still scored twice, and both weaker ACL sides found the net. Gamba's keepers have also let in more than expected in both continental games.
Buriram fit that pattern. Dougall is back to screen the defence, and Bissoli, Schimmer and Causic are all available to break. With one point from two games they need a result, so they cannot settle for a narrow defeat. If Gamba score first, Buriram have to come forward. If Buriram score first, Gamba keep pushing, as they did when they came from behind at Newcastle. Either way, I expect goals at both ends, so I'm backing both Gamba and Buriram to score.
