Spalletti more or less told us his plan for Napoli: Zhegrova and Boga won't start, but they'll come on after the break. That lines up uncomfortably well with where Napoli have been coming apart. In their last two home games they conceded three goals from the 69th minute on against Roma (from 2-0 up) and let Bodø/Glimt build 2.56 of their 2.66 xG in the second half. Juventus haven't created much from a standing start lately, so the real contest here may be the last half hour rather than the first.
The Juventus side of it is a chance-creation problem more than a defensive one. Against Lazio they had 58% of the ball and 0.78 xG; at Genoa it was 63% and 1.26 xG, with two goals conceded before half-time. With Locatelli, Khéphren Thuram and Nico González all out, Sky expects a 3-5-2 with Douglas Luiz and Koopmeiners alongside Sarr, which doesn't look like a midfield that suddenly starts carving teams open early. Fresh wide runners against tiring legs is a more believable route than a sudden change in the first hour.
Napoli's midfield has its own hole. Lobotka is out with an ankle injury, and Allegri said either De Bruyne or Gilmour replaces him, or Napoli go with two holding midfielders. In both of those leaky home second halves Lobotka was the player sent on to settle things, at 60 minutes against Bodø and 79 against Roma, and that option isn't on the bench now. Allegri himself, asked what Napoli have lacked in direct clashes, pointed to the defensive phase in certain moments of matches, and talked about more effective playing time meaning more moments of fatigue. Sky also reports he's suspended and won't be on the bench, so the in-game reading falls to someone else.
Football rarely follows a script this neatly, and Napoli's 4-1 at Monza is a reminder they can also run a game. Still, with half the usual midfield missing on both sides and both coaches talking about balance, the question I'm most curious about is which bench gets its changes right once legs start to go.
