Two Champions League Elite games decided by shape and legs rather than names. In Jeonju, Johor's ball control and shot volume meet a Jeonbuk side playing its third match in eight days. In Kobe, a direct, cross-heavy home side runs into a Thai block built to defend the box against Japanese opponents. In both games, the way each team creates chances points away from the general picture.
Johor have controlled all three of their ACLE games: around 62% possession, 20 to 27 shots and close to two expected goals each time, while giving up almost nothing. Jeonbuk under Chung Jung-yong are a crossing team in a middle block. Recently they have created about 1.1 xG a game and conceded 1.5, and they managed one shot on target at home to Daejeon three days before this game, with their core playing the full 90.
Jeonbuk's real route is direct: an early corner, a cross to their target man, or Lee Seung-woo between the lines. Bergson's doubtful status takes away Johor's main box finisher, so their goals have to come from the wingers and runners from midfield. I expect Jeonbuk to start hard and fade around the hour, while Johor's rested legs and bench take over. That's why I'm siding with Johor, with the draw covered.
Kobe under Skibbe win through crosses, set plays, long throws and late headers from the bench. They average about 1.3 xG and usually win by one goal, and in the ACLE their wins came by one, two and one. Skibbe has said he will change several players after a three-day turnaround. Ratchaburi under Srimaka play two ways. Against Japanese sides they sit deep with tall centre-backs Insua and Aggoun and keeper Kampol: Kyoto needed an 88th-minute goal and Kashiwa were held 0-0, and both games were scoreless at half-time.
The key matchup is Kobe's delivery into the box against Ratchaburi's strongest unit. Insua played the full game against Kashiwa, so that back line is current. The first goal is the turning point. Without an early one, this looks like Kobe pressing on the edge of the box with half-chances, and the usual result for this Kobe side is a narrow one. That's why I'm backing Ratchaburi to keep it close.
