Two matches where one side's weakness has already been measured against this kind of opponent. Gol Gohar keep the ball but cannot turn it into chances, and they arrive badly depleted. Tainan play fast and score a lot in their own league, but their defence leaks and their best big man gets into foul trouble. In both, the stronger structure is on one side of all four lines.
Arkadag against Gol Gohar: the first leg told the story. Gol Gohar had most of the ball and finished with no shots on target against Arkadag's compact block. Since then they have lost four attacking options, their ball-winning midfielder and two defenders to injury, illness and refused visas, and they had a long overland trip. Arkadag score at this level through crosses and corners to their centre-backs, Bashimov and Saparov, and that route meets a weakened back line. Gol Gohar must win, so a level game late pushes a thin side forward into Arkadag's counters. That's why I'm siding with Arkadag at home.
Tainan against Alvark: Tainan's big scoring numbers came against weak defences in their domestic league, while Alvark's attack was built against stronger B.League defences, so it should hold up here. The free-throw line also tilts to Alvark: they get there often and foul little, while Tainan concede plenty of trips and rely on Balvin, who fouled out in their last game in this competition as a 20-point lead turned into an overtime loss. Alvark's full rotation played light minutes in their last game, so they arrive fresh. I expect Tainan to start well at home and Alvark's depth to take over in the second half. That's why I'm siding with Alvark to win.
