Turkey arrive in Italy with the thinnest attack they have had all campaign. Arda Güler and Barış Alper Yılmaz both picked up yellow cards against Belgium and are suspended, and several Turkish outlets agree on that. A team with one goal in three Nations League games has just lost its main creator and a first-choice forward, and that is the point this pick turns on.
The Belgium game shows what Güler meant to them. He had the early shots, the free kicks and the crosses, and most of Turkey's best moments ran through him. They still managed 22 attempts in that match and came away without a goal. Plenty of shooting without the player who makes it dangerous is a poor trade.
The backdrop is rough too. Turkey are on zero points, there were chants against the coach after the Belgium defeat, and they now face the side that beat them 4-1 in the first meeting. Several midfielders are listed as doubtful in the previews, so the XI could look unfamiliar.
Italy are not airtight, which is why I kept this to a measured stake. They have conceded in every group game so far, and in the first meeting Turkey actually had the higher expected goals. The market has already reacted to the suspension news, but only partly, and the price I took sits on the longer side of what other books show.
The lineups are not out yet. I read this as a side that has lost its edge on a difficult away trip, and I am staking on that picture rather than on any certainty.
