Indiana host a Dallas side that keeps giving the ball away and has only one real centre, so the possessions should tilt toward the home team. In Hiroshima, a pressing home side that has stopped conceding at its own ground meets a Shimizu team that has just lost the player who carried its counters. In both games the home side holds the structural edge. The open question is how big the gap gets.
Indiana v Dallas. Dallas's turnovers are not a one-off. This squad, in this coach's first games, gave it away 21 times at Houston, 27 against New Orleans and 15 against Atlanta. Up front they lean on Gafford as their only true centre, and he managed 21 minutes and 3 rebounds while Dallas lost the glass 33-42. Indiana bring Zubac, who pulled down 14 boards in their opener, with Haliburton and Siakam working inside next to him.
The schedule adds to it. Dallas play the first night of a back-to-back on the road, are missing the same four players as in their opener, and eased Irving back in for only about 23 minutes. Indiana's opening five is intact at home after two days off. McConnell is out, which thins Indiana's backup guard minutes, so the second quarter, bench against bench, is where Indiana's turnovers have to stay under control.
I expect Indiana to build their lead off Dallas mistakes and second chances. Dallas will lean on Flagg getting to the line and a heavy volume of threes to stay close. Indiana's recent games have been tight, so I want them to win the game rather than give away a big start. That's why I'm siding with Indiana to win.
Hiroshima v Shimizu. Hiroshima press high and keep the ball, and at home they have been very hard to score against: one goal conceded in their last four home games and seven clean sheets in ten. Shimizu are coming off a heavy defeat where they managed six shots and created almost nothing, and Matsuzaki is suspended. He was the wide outlet behind most of their recent goals and counters, both as scorer and creator.
Hiroshima are without Haller through suspension, but their goals have not depended on him. They won cup ties with him on the bench and scored twice against Kyoto after he went off. Their quick forwards run in behind rather than wait for crosses, which suits a game against a deep block.
The likely flow is Hiroshima on the ball from the start with Shimizu sitting deep. Once Hiroshima score, Shimizu have to come out, and that is when Hiroshima's bench has added goals in their recent home wins. The earlier meetings at this ground were tight, so I'm backing Hiroshima to win clearly while still being covered if they only scrape through by one. That's why I'm siding with Hiroshima to win by a margin.
