Two Europa League nights where the home side's shape should decide how the game runs. In Pilsen the gap is about who is actually available at the back and up front for the visitors; in Sinsheim both teams leak and both attack in transition.
Plzen vs Levski Sofia: Levski arrive with two listed centre-backs off the roster and two forwards missing, and their attack has produced only about 1.7 shots on target a game in this competition. Plzen take the ball at home and create real volume, with 18 and 14 shots in their two Europa League games. Their own back line has leaked chances and the goalkeeper situation is unclear, so Levski can still hit on the break, but a thin visiting attack is unlikely to keep pace over ninety minutes. That's why I'm siding with Plzen to win.
Hoffenheim vs Lyon: Hoffenheim hold about 58 percent of the ball and take around 17 shots a game, yet they have conceded 23 in their last ten and three in two of their last three at home. Lyon have scored in each of their last five. Lyon lose their striker pair, which trims chance quality a little, but the game is still built on Hoffenheim over-committing and Lyon running at the space behind. I'm expecting goals from both directions and leaning to the game being open and high-scoring.
