Two matches, one shared shape: both feature a side that controls play but defends loosely, so the games should be open rather than cagey.
Hoffenheim vs Lyon. Hoffenheim hold the ball (about 58 percent, 17 shots, 7 corners a game) but give up as much as they create: combined expected goals in their games average around 3.2, and nine of their last ten went past two goals. They are also without centre-back Hajdari. Lyon are an even side with about 1.6 expected goals for and 1.3 against, and lose forwards Openda and Sulc, which dents their finishing but not the way they create chances. Hoffenheim are desperate for points, so I expect an open game that produces goals. That's why I'm on the goals side here.
Plzen vs Levski. Plzen are a high-event team: 17 scored and 16 conceded in ten, with about 2.8 expected goals against in their recent European rows after being beaten 3-0 and 2-1 there. At home they will push and leave space, so Levski should find at least one chance on the counter even with Kirilov and Sangare missing up front. Plzen have scored in nine of their last ten. That's why I'm backing both sides to find the net.
