Two matches where the second half should matter most. At Bournemouth, the hosts' early press is a real threat, but Milan's bench and Bournemouth's habit of conceding late give the visitors a route back. In Sinsheim, a Hoffenheim side that keeps conceding after the hour meets a rotated Lyon team built for counter-attacks.
Bournemouth v AC Milan. Rose's Bournemouth press high and go direct to Evanilson early, and they have scored inside the first quarter hour in several recent games. Their two home clean sheets came against Sturm Graz and a Sunderland side down to ten men, though. Against Liverpool, the one strong side they hosted, they lost without much of a threat. Scott is out, so the press is less sharp.
Milan's rotated forwards are no unknown second string: Cisse, Moreira and Hutchinson were part of the group that won 4-0 at Salzburg. They will run into the space behind Bournemouth's advanced full-backs. Then, around the hour, Rabiot, Modric and Pulisic come off the bench, the same kind of change that turned a two-goal deficit at Lazio into a draw. Milan are unbeaten in their last five away games. I'm siding with Milan not to lose this one.
Hoffenheim v Lyon. Ilzer's Hoffenheim keep the ball, shoot a lot and win plenty of corners, and they concede heavily. They let in 23 goals in their last ten, most of them after the hour with the core team stretched. Besiktas and Hamburg both scored three in Sinsheim.
Lyon arrive rotated ahead of their weekend game against PSG. That reshuffles their back four, with Mata at left-back and no Tagliafico, and leaves them without Tolisso to calm the game down. Without Openda and Sulc, their goals come from wide runners such as Nakamura and Boudache attacking space, which is exactly what Hoffenheim's high full-backs leave open. Hoffenheim have zero points and cannot sit on a lead, so both sides should keep attacking whoever scores first.
That's why I'm expecting an open, high-scoring game in Sinsheim.
