Germany will have the ball again in Thessaloniki, but I do not see them turning that into a flood of chances against a Greek side that sits deep and makes the game small. The first meeting between these two was a tight, low-event affair, and Greece's other big game of this window followed the same pattern. My judgement turns on how little Germany have produced against organised opponents compared with how much they produced against a weak one.
In the first meeting Germany had 76 percent of the ball and 16 shots, yet the expected goals figure was only 1.27, and Greece won it with a single goal from a side that finished with 24 percent possession. Against the Netherlands, Greece had 29 percent of the ball, conceded 1.16 expected goals and still led 2-0 at the break. Germany's 2-0 win over Serbia, with 3.90 expected goals and 32 shots, came against a team that managed one shot. Away at the Netherlands they scored once from 1.45 expected goals.
All three Germany games under Klopp have been low on goals: a 1-1 draw, the 0-1 defeat and the 2-0 win. Greece, meanwhile, failed to score in four of their last ten matches and got to three goals only once. Christos Tzolis, who scored at Serbia, was reported as likely to miss this one with a thigh problem, which takes some of the sting out of Greece's counter-attacks. Germany are also without Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala.
The market leans towards Germany finally breaking through, and I understand why, because they will dominate territory. But territory is not the same as goals, and Greece have shown twice in a week that they can live with it. I am backing the match to stay small rather than picking who wins it.
