Greece beat Germany in the first meeting by staying compact, giving up the ball and making German possession count for little. Those ingredients are still in place, and Germany's front line is thinner than the name suggests. I think Greece are the side to trust here, because their way of playing does not depend on having the ball.
In that first game Germany held roughly three quarters of the possession and took 16 shots, yet the expected goals total was only about 1.3. Greece's block turned heavy territory into low-quality attempts and then used a few transitions late in the game. The result was not just a deflection; it came from a structure Greece can repeat.
Germany's numbers show the same pattern. They drew with the Dutch, lost to Greece, and then beat Serbia 2-0 despite 32 shots and an expected goals total near 3.9. They create plenty but finish unevenly, which is exactly what a deep block invites.
Germany are again without Musiala and Havertz, Gnabry has left the squad, and several more players are listed as doubtful. Greece have their own concern, because Tzolis, who was involved in the winning goal last time, is not certain to be available. Even so, Greece are unbeaten in their last three, and two of those games came with less than 30 percent of the ball.
Lineups are not confirmed yet, so this view rests on the squad picture and the way the first meeting played out.
