Two matches where missing personnel shape the script. In Getafe the lost attackers and runners make for a low-event home side; at Bournemouth the visitors' broken centre-back pairing meets a high-volume pressing team.
Getafe vs Lugano: Getafe are compact and duel-heavy, and with several forwards and midfield runners out they have scored only seven in their last ten without a single game above three goals in total. Two recent draws already reflect those absences. Lugano score freely, but most of that comes from weak Swiss opposition, and a deep block is a different test. I expect Lugano to hold the ball and Getafe to sit, so I'm leaning to a controlled, lowish scoring game.
Bournemouth vs AC Milan: Bournemouth average about 17.6 shots a game and posted big chance numbers in their last two home games. Milan have no usable first-choice centre-back pair, with one injured and one suspended, and rotation is expected after a league game on the weekend. A makeshift back four facing pressing and transitions should concede enough chances. That's why I'm siding with Bournemouth to win at home.
