Two Champions League Two group games where the name on the shirt says less than the side on the pitch. Gangwon's continental team is a young, rotated group that holds the ball but has barely found the net in this competition. Tai Po, by contrast, have looked a level below everyone in their group and arrive without three players their coach is keeping for the return leg. In both games, what each side has actually done in this competition matters more than league reputation.
Gangwon v Kuching City. In two ACL Two games Gangwon fielded a second-string, youthful XI. They had plenty of the ball and won lots of corners against Phnom Penh, but their only goal in 180 minutes came from the penalty spot, and they lost that home game after conceding twice from three shots. This isn't only about rotation, either: across their last 20 games Gangwon average about a goal a game and have won by two or more just three times. With a K League final-round trip to Ulsan three days later, another heavily rotated side is the natural expectation.
Kuching are Malaysia's runners-up and bring their first team. They happily give up the ball and break through Wenzel-Halls and Mujagic, and they have scored in nine of their last ten. Against a young Gangwon back line that has already given away cheap goals, that counter is a real route. The trip to the cold and a busy schedule are genuine burdens for them, but the likely picture is Gangwon on top in territory without a reliable finisher, so the margin stays small. That's why I'm siding with Kuching to stay close in this one.
Tai Po v Pathum United. In this competition Tai Po have been a deep block that cannot get the ball back: 31% possession and two shots on target at home to Lion City, then a 3-0 defeat at Adelaide, and no goals at all so far. Pathum, at the same level, peppered Adelaide with 18 shots, ten of them inside the box, and drew away at the same Lion City side that dominated Tai Po.
The key battle is Pathum's creators, Chanathip, Andersen and Kritsada, finding time between the lines against a Tai Po midfield that struggled to keep the ball. Pathum are without Raniel up front and are under an interim coach, but the senior core travelled and rest is level. Tai Po's coach has said publicly he will not rush his returning centre-back and two others. Tai Po's best hope is set pieces, because Pathum have conceded from deliveries before. But both sides need a first group win, so Tai Po can't simply sit back, and that should open space for Pathum once they score. That's why I'm backing Pathum to win away.
