Two Champions League Elite games where the headline numbers hide how the goals were actually made. Johor's dominance in this competition was built largely against ten men, and this week they are without both of their natural centre-forwards. Port win freely at home in Thailand, but at this level their open-play attack has been almost empty while they concede shots in bulk. One game should be tight and controlled; the other should be one-way traffic.
Jeonbuk vs Johor: Johor will have the ball, as they did with 58 to 66% in every group game. But Buriram went down to ten at 57 minutes with the score level, and Pohang lost a man just before half-time with the score at 0-0. Both decisive Johor spells came after those red cards. At eleven against eleven their only clean win was against Port. Bergson is doubtful after the knock that forced him off on 27 Oct, and Yago did not travel. The creators around them are intact, so Johor keep control but lose some finishing.
Jeonbuk's coach has said openly that the plan is organisation first. Their route to a goal does not need the ball: corners, crosses to Bruno Mota, and Lee Seung-woo carrying on turnovers. They scored twice that way in Beijing. Both were saved for this match. The danger is late, when Jeonbuk's back line is on its third game in eight days, and I respect that. Even so, a controlled, low-chance game where Johor are happy with a point fits the structure, so I'm siding with Jeonbuk not to lose.
Port vs Beijing Guoan: Port's open-play numbers in this competition are 0.13, 0.68 and 0.09 expected goals, with almost no shots from inside the box against Kobe and at Johor. Meanwhile, opponents have taken 13 to 27 shots against them every time. Guoan lost Fabio a few weeks ago, but since then they have scored seven goals through six different players, so creation from Zhang Xizhe, Lin Liangming and Akolo is still there. Port's real route is set-piece headers from their centre-backs, and it is a live one. It is a single route against Guoan's many, so I'm backing Guoan to win away.
