Two Asian Champions League games with very different shapes: one lopsided in chances, one open at both ends.
In Bangkok, Port MTI are winless in the competition and have been outshot by roughly twenty shots to five per game, with expected goals of about 0.3 for and 2.5 against over three games. Beijing Guoan sit fifth in the table to Port's fifteenth and keep the ball, though their own chance creation is modest, so a tight game is possible. I'm siding with Beijing away to win.
In Hanoi, Cong An Ha Noi shoot a lot, about sixteen a game, but concede around one and a half expected goals. Kyoto have a similar leak, having conceded heavily in recent league games, and they create enough to score. With the suspended midfielder Mauk reported out, Hanoi's screen is thinner, so I expect both teams to find the net here.
