Fulham at home are a team that makes chances and then wastes them. Newcastle arrive with their central midfield stripped out, and their league attack has barely tested a goalkeeper lately. That leaves one real question: can Fulham's possession get past a weakened Newcastle spine before Newcastle find a counter? I think the absences tilt that question toward the home side.
Under Arbeloa, Fulham hold the ball at Craven Cottage, usually between 64 and 76 percent, and their chance numbers are strong: 1.44 xG against Hull, 1.62 against Manchester United, 2.19 and 3.14 in the two Palace games. The results have lagged because of finishing. Their defeats follow one pattern: they dominate, miss, and get hit on the break by a side that has a working midfield.
This Newcastle side doesn't have one. Joelinton played on 2 November and has since been ruled out by Jaissle. Ramsey is suspended after his red card that day, and Miley hasn't played since mid-October. That removes the duel-winner, the carrier and a protector, so Fulham's pivot of Berge and Charles should win the second balls and keep the pressure on, as it did when Fulham outshot Hull 18 to 5.
On the other side of the ball, Newcastle have produced very little in the league: two, two and one shots on target in three of their last four, and barely any first-half threat. Their realistic routes are direct balls behind Fulham's high full-backs and centre-back headers from set pieces. Both are real, but neither has been producing many clear chances.
I expect Fulham to have most of the ball, Newcastle to sit deep and go long, and Fulham's corners and sustained pressure to break a goalkeeper who has been conceding more than the chances deserve. That's why I'm backing Fulham to win this one.
