Two Serie A games with very different shapes, but both are driven by who is missing. One is a home side with the ball against a visitor stripped of its attacking and midfield options. The other is a meeting of two back lines that have been hollowed out by absences.
Frosinone against Lecce: Frosinone play an open, high-volume style at home, with nine wins and a draw in their last eleven home games and 28 goals scored. Lecce score about a goal a game and have been shut out in three of their last ten. The injury list is heavy: Ilic, Berisha, Coulibaly and Pierotti are out, and Gaspar is suspended after a red card. Ilic, Berisha and Coulibaly also missed the last match, so this is the current picture, not a surprise. Lecce have little to attack with and need a counter or a set piece to score. Frosinone leak chances too, so an early Lecce goal would change things, but the territory and the home record are the heavier weight. That's why I'm siding with Frosinone to win the match.
Fiorentina against Atalanta: Atalanta are without four defenders and wing-backs, including Hien, Kossounou, Kolasinac and Bellanova, plus three forwards. Fiorentina are missing Pongracic and Parisi, with Ranieri doubtful. Every one of Fiorentina's last ten games had at least two goals, and seven had three or more. Atalanta's last league games finished 4-4 at Frosinone and a 2-3 defeat. Both sides create around one and a half expected goals a game, and with the midfield also thinned by Kessie and Atta missing, the transitions should be loose. I expect an open game with plenty of chances at both ends, and that's why I'm on goals in this match.
