Two MLS home sides whose home records are stronger than what their visitors bring on the road. In both games the visitor has more shots or a better-looking recent run, but the home team's defence and the visitor's away record tell a different story.
Nashville v Philadelphia. Nashville lead the table and have been close to unbeatable at home: across their last 20 home games they have 10 wins, no draws, no losses, and only 6 goals conceded, with 0 conceded in the last four. Philadelphia are a volume team, around 20 shots a game, but that volume has not been turning into wins when it matters: they lost 1-2 at home to New England on 10-24 despite 25 shots. Their latest absence list shows two forwards and two midfielders out, including Sullivan and Bueno, who were also missing in that loss. Away from home they have been leaky, conceding more than two a game. I expect Nashville to defend compactly, take the clean chances they get, and Philadelphia's shots to come from low-value positions. That's why I'm siding with Nashville to win.
FC Dallas v Columbus. This looks like an open game with goals at both ends, but the home side has the steadier base. Dallas have conceded only 8 goals in their last 8 home games, while Columbus have won 2 of 7 away and conceded 13 in those. Columbus's recent good run is flattered by home wins over Toronto and Charlotte. Dallas are without Sarver, who is suspended, and Farrington, so their front line is thinner, and Columbus are also short at the back with Camacho out. Columbus have already played five games without Abou Ali and kept scoring, so that is not a new problem for them either. If Dallas score first, set pieces and penalties are their route, and Columbus have to chase. A draw is a real outcome here, so I'm siding with Dallas on the handicap that returns the stake if it ends level.
