Estudiantes are the clear home favourite here, but the way they arrive makes a comfortable win hard to trust. They have lost several games in a row across competitions, including the Supercup and a Copa Argentina quarterfinal exit, and their coach has talked about rest and rotation because of fatigue. Gimnasia Mendoza come in rested after two weeks off, and I am backing them to at least avoid defeat.
The visitors sit fourth in Zone A on 17 points and are already safe in the top flight, so they play with nothing to fear. Agustín Módica has 8 goals in 9 Clausura games, the best return in the tournament, and Facundo Lencioni is back available. Their last outing was a scoreless draw with Riestra, which shows they can stay in a game and keep it tight.
Estudiantes still have a strong home record, and Muslera behind a settled back line is no small thing. But they have a Flamengo tie coming up, three players (Núñez, Palacios, Carrillo) are still being monitored, and the preview lineups suggest changes. A team under pressure and managing legs is more likely to grind out a draw or a narrow result than to run away with it.
Lineups are not confirmed yet, so I am treating the names as probable only. The case rests on the schedule and fatigue on one side and a rested, in-form attack on the other.
