Mainz's wide delivery and Elversberg's running beyond pressure give their meeting two distinct attacking routes. Both teams have recently left space after advancing in pursuit of a goal. Villarreal's meeting with Espanyol turns on repeated home recoveries and wide service against an away side that has struggled to clear pressure and retain its next pass.
Caci's supply is the strongest Mainz connection. His deliveries have reached Tietz and Lee, and he created chances again in a short cup appearance. Elversberg can answer through Petkov's penetration and runners reaching the spaces beside the visiting back three.
Amiri remains doubtful after missing the cup, so the attacking case uses the demonstrated wide supply rather than assuming his return. Nebel has recent cup minutes, and Campbell, Krattenmacher and Onyeka have all been used for Elversberg. The hosts' cup defeat still contained saved chances for Campbell, a Futkeu effort against the post and a late Mokwa header.
The first contest should be whether Elversberg can pass beyond Mainz's pressure. As the match develops, the need to respond to an opening goal gives the runners and wide suppliers more space to attack. That's why I'm siding with goals in Elversberg–Mainz.
Villarreal's pressure created close chances against Elche, and Cardona's cross to Freeman at Valencia showed the wide-to-box connection in action. Espanyol allowed Racing repeated close attempts and lost the decisive goal after a corner scramble. Their subsequent cup match again exposed restart protection.
Gueye's suspension and Saliba's absence change the home midfield, with Comesana and Macia providing the expected central pairing. Pepe has already returned to start and score in the cup. Several established home players avoided a cup start, while Espanyol went through extra time and Sergio Garcia has had little preparation for taking charge of this match.
I expect Villarreal to recycle clearances and return the ball to the flanks, bringing their receivers into repeated box contests as the match progresses. The combination of demonstrated supply, rested options and Espanyol's difficulty ending attacks gives the home side the stronger winning route. That's why I'm siding with Villarreal to win.
