Manchester United's results are not bad luck. They have been outcreated in five straight games under the same coach, and the same mistakes keep deciding them. Roma bring a press built to force exactly those mistakes, and Roma's absences were already missing when they created heavily in their last two games. At Pride Park, Norwich carry the ball and Derby wait to break, so each side gets the kind of game its attack needs.
United first. They lost the expected-goals count at Atletico, Leeds, Como, at home to Bournemouth with 63% of the ball, and at Chelsea, managing three to five shots on target a game. Their goals against come from four repeating sources: midfield turnovers in their own half, individual errors at the back, poorly defended set pieces and red cards. With Sesko out, the front four of Bruno, Mbeumo, Amad and Cunha has no real number nine and shoots a lot from outside the box.
The key matchup is Roma's man-oriented press against United's double pivot. Midfield turnovers gave Como a goal and Chelsea their opener. Out wide, Roma's wing-backs attack a United back line without Shaw and Dorgu. United's best route is the other way: breaking the press and running into the space behind those wing-backs, plus corners against Gollini. Cagliari and Napoli both created plenty against this Roma shape, so I take that route seriously.
Roma's injury list looks long, with Svilar, Dybala, Kone and Pellegrini out. But Svilar was already out at Udinese, and Kone and Pellegrini missed both recent wins, when this exact unit created close to three expected goals in each game with nine and eight shots on target. The thin bench, seventeen available players according to Gasperini, matters late in the game, not for the starting eleven.
I expect United to start on the front foot at home and Roma's press to hunt the turnovers. United's recent first-half pressure has gone unconverted, and their games have turned on a mistake soon after the break. That's why I'm siding with Roma to come away with at least a point.
Derby against Norwich. Norwich's missing forwards are old news: Toure and Diallo were already out when Kvistgaarden, Maghoma and Musaba scored three at Charlton and three against Watford. That front line now faces a patched Derby back four, without Forsyth and Taylor, that has conceded in nine of its last ten games.
Derby's own goal is the half that needs the closer look. At home they have been blocked by deep defences: Stoke sat back and ten of Derby's seventeen shots were blocked. Norwich will not sit back. They hold close to 60% of the ball, have conceded in all of their last ten, and gave up two counter-attack goals to Watford a few days ago. Their coach said himself that the transition defending was poor. Morris, Brewster, Szmodics and Clark all played at the weekend, and Derby have scored in seven of their last ten.
The flow I expect is Norwich possession against a Derby mid-block, with every Norwich turnover in midfield a chance for Derby's runners. Norwich have chased well when behind this season, so an early Derby goal invites a reply rather than a shutout. That's why I'm siding with both teams getting on the scoresheet.
