Two early-season NBA games where the market leans on names and last season more than on what this season's rosters have shown. Both samples are only three or four official games, so I read them as questions about structure rather than measurements.
Indiana against Philadelphia: Indiana is the faster, higher-scoring side, but its list is heavy where it matters. The centre is out, a second rotation guard is out, and the point guard, a wing and another guard carry doubtful tags from the latest report. Philadelphia is slower and shoots poorly from three, yet it wins by defending, has an extra day of rest and took three of the last four meetings by nine or more. Philadelphia's absences are fringe players. If Indiana's guard group has to create offence in the half court without its rim anchor, a margin opens in the second half, where Philadelphia's third and fourth quarters have been its best. That's why I'm siding with Philadelphia to win by a clear margin.
Cleveland against Washington: both teams are open, three-point heavy and leaky. Cleveland's three official margins are a two-point win, a four-point win and an eight-point loss, while conceding about 120 a game. Washington has won on the road at Chicago and beat Milwaukee by twelve, and its guards get to the line. Losing its rebounder hurts the glass, but the home side would still need a double-digit win it has not produced this season. The ten straight wins in this series came with last season's rosters. That's why I'm siding with Washington to stay inside the margin.
