[2026-27 DFB-Pokal] Cologne vs Union Berlin: Match Preview Kick-off: October 27 at 19:45 UTC
Cologne and Union Berlin meet in the second round of the DFB-Pokal at RheinEnergieStadion at 19:45 UTC on October 27. The sides will meet again in Berlin for a Bundesliga fixture five days later. This is a one-off tie, with extra time and a penalty shootout possible if needed to decide the winner.
1. Match overview and team form
Cologne are 12th with 8 points from 7 league matches, while Union Berlin are 17th with 6 points. Cologne have earned all 8 of their points at home, recording 2 wins and 2 draws in 4 matches there. Union have taken 1 point from 3 away games, with 1 goal scored and 12 conceded. The venue records favour Cologne, but 11 of Union’s 12 away goals conceded came in two matches against Leverkusen and Bayern Munich. Those results came against different opposition, so they are not a sound basis for expecting the same defensive struggles at Cologne.
Today’s factors Last 3 league matches: Cologne 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, 2 goals scored and 2 conceded / Union Berlin 1 win, 2 draws, 2 goals scored and 1 conceded Strikers: Cologne’s Thijs Dallinga is out, Ragnar Ache is a doubt / Union Berlin’s Andrej Ilić is out, Tim Skarke is expected to start Main attacking routes: Cologne through Malek El Mala’s shooting and Jan Thielmann’s runs from midfield / Union Berlin through corners and loose balls left uncleared in the penalty area
Cologne’s recent changes have coincided with the loss of their central strikers. Thijs Dallinga is out with a cruciate ligament injury, while a decision on whether Ragnar Ache makes the squad will be made on matchday. Across the 4 league games in which both players featured, Cologne recorded 69 shots and 7.87 expected goals. In the 3 matches without them, they managed 43 shots and 3.18 expected goals. Expected goals per shot fell from around 0.11 to around 0.07. The opposition also changed, so we cannot attribute the entire drop to the injuries, but Cologne have clearly lost the player who used to finish crosses in the box. They have failed to score in each of their last two matches, against Frankfurt and Schalke 04.
At the other end, the 0-0 draw with Schalke 04 was Rene Wagner’s first clean sheet as coach. Wagner particularly praised the team’s set-piece defending. Schalke, though, have scored only 4 goals in 7 league games. Cologne had conceded 9 league goals before the Hamburg match, 5 of them from set pieces. We will see in this game whether the improvement in one match holds up against Union Berlin’s corners.
Union Berlin adjusted their starting line-up and defensive shape after a 7-0 away defeat to Bayern Munich, then had a two-week break between matches. They followed up with a 1-0 league win over Elversberg and draws of 0-0 with Dortmund and 1-1 with Augsburg. Against Augsburg, they played with 10 men for more than 70 minutes after Felix Uduokhai was sent off in the 19th minute. Their defensive results have improved, but they have scored only 3 goals in their last 6 league games. Their 2 goals in the last 3 matches both came after set pieces, one from a scramble and the other from a ball the opposition failed to clear from the penalty area.
The coaches are also expected to take different approaches to selection. After hearing calls from home fans for him to leave, Wagner said he would use players who still had energy and indicated there would be changes to the starting line-up. Mauro Lustrinelli has stressed defensive stability and continuity. Cologne are expected to switch from a 4-2-3-1 to a 4-2-2-2, with Marius Bülter and Malek El Mala up front. Union are expected to use a 4-2-3-1 with Tim Skarke leading the line, though neither team’s starting XI has been confirmed. Cologne are also without Ellyes Skhiri through injury, leaving Tom Krauß and Jan Thielmann to share his midfield duties.
In recent meetings, Union beat Cologne 1-0 away last December and drew 2-2 in Berlin in May. All 3 of Union’s goals came after the 73rd minute, with 2 starting from corners. Lustrinelli was not Union’s coach for either match. The relevant carry-over is that the players who can deliver Christopher Trimmel’s corners, Tom Rothe’s headers and Livan Burcu’s shots are still there.
Both teams played league matches on October 24 and are back in action three days later. Union had to play for a long time with 10 men in their last game, while Cologne are preparing to rotate. Rain and strong gusts are also forecast during the match. We cannot say that the weather favours either side, though it could affect the accuracy of the corners and crosses both teams use as attacking routes.
2. Match-up analysis
Cologne are likely to have more of the ball early on, while Union Berlin narrow the space between midfield and defence. Lustrinelli has said stability comes before attack, and Union’s compact defensive shape against Dortmund recently stopped their possession from becoming clear chances. Cologne built from the back against Schalke 04 but struggled to move the ball through midfield into attack. If that happens again, the positions in which El Mala and Thielmann receive the ball, and how quickly they can turn those touches into shots, will matter.
Moving El Mala from the wing into a central role would change Cologne’s attack. Schalke had two players marking him on the flank, but centrally he would need to receive the ball between Union midfielders, including Rani Khedira, and their centre-backs. If he can shoot from close to the penalty area, Cologne could partly make up for their shortage of central strikers. Thielmann can also make runs into the box from midfield, as he did when he scored against Borussia Mönchengladbach. If the pair cannot get the ball in front of the defence, Cologne will have to build through the wings and shoot from there. If Ache is unavailable, they will also be short of players to finish crosses in the box.
If Union’s defensive line pushes up, Linton Maina’s runs in behind offer Cologne another route forward. Maina has the pace to attack the space behind Rothe. Union are likely to sit deep, though, which would reduce that space. Maina had only 28 touches in 90 minutes against Schalke, who defended deep. We therefore should not expect him to have plenty of space in behind from the start. His runs could become more dangerous if Cologne score first and force Union to push forward.
Union also have trouble turning turnovers into attacks that end in shots. Andrej Ilić is out, and if Skarke starts up front as expected, Union will lack a natural centre-forward who can take long passes and hold up the ball. Lustrinelli has said Mekhi Gray can provide that physical presence. It is not yet clear when Gray might feature. That is why a Cologne turnover while playing out does not automatically mean a Union scoring chance.
Union’s clearest route to goal is from set pieces. Their winner against Cologne last December came after Cologne failed to clear a corner properly and András Schäfer scored. In May, Rothe headed in a Trimmel corner. Union’s winner against Elversberg this season also came from a Burcu shot after the opposition cleared Trimmel’s corner. Cologne have conceded plenty from set pieces and have let opponents back into games after taking the lead. However, Union’s recent set-piece taker Kastriot Imeri is not fully fit, and Trimmel is not expected to start. How much of a threat they can pose from the opening whistle will depend on who plays.
As the game wears on, the coaches’ substitutions will matter. Wagner used all 5 substitutes after the 75th minute in the first round, but if the score remains 0-0 at home, he could make attacking changes earlier this time. If Ache is in the squad, he could come on after the break to provide a presence in the box. Lustrinelli has emphasised continuity, so the first-choice players who spent more than 70 minutes playing with 10 men in their last game are likely to feature again. Whether they can maintain their defensive shape late on is a key variable.
Cologne’s approach after taking the lead could also affect the result. In the May meeting, Wagner took off three players around the 71st and 72nd minutes, including scorers El Mala and Bülter, after Cologne went 2-0 up. Union equalised with a corner in the 73rd minute and a Burcu shot in the 89th. Cologne have also conceded equalisers after scoring first against Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach this season. If they take the lead today, their decision to keep attacking or drop back and allow Union to win corners could change the chances of both a second goal and an equaliser.
3. Verdict and conclusion
The market clearly favours Cologne, reflecting their unbeaten home record and Union Berlin’s away goals conceded. But most of Union’s heavy away defeats came against Leverkusen and Bayern Munich. Cologne’s home record also includes matches in which the central strikers now missing were available. With today’s likely line-ups and the recent defensive changes in mind, we think the gap between the sides is smaller than those records suggest.
Our 90-minute score predictions are 1-1 or 0-0, with Cologne at home. A 1-1 draw looks more likely, given Wagner’s tendency to sit back after taking the lead, which has allowed opponents chances to respond, and Union’s threat from corners. If Cologne cannot score in the first half and Union maintain their compact defensive shape, the shortage of central strikers could leave the score at 0-0 after 90 minutes. If Cologne take an early lead and keep attacking, Maina could exploit the space Union leave as they push forward, and Cologne could add another goal against this forecast.
