China has given up eight goals in two home games, and the way they went in matters more than the scorelines. The defensive setup is leaking: a beaten offside line, a failed clearance, a goalkeeping mistake. Tajikistan is a side that keeps finding the net, and they arrive better rested. I don't trust China to turn this around and win here.
The 0-5 against Palestine was China's first-ever defeat to them. The first goal came after Liu Yang couldn't clear in the box, the second from a run that beat the offside line, and Yan Junling let one slip through early in the second half. Coach Shao Jiayi apologised afterwards and said he accepted all the criticism. Four days earlier it was 0-3 against New Zealand. When the goals keep coming the same way, it's the structure, not bad luck.
Tajikistan scored 21 goals in their last 10 games and have been shut out only once in their last 20. That's exactly what you don't want to face when your back line keeps getting caught out. They've also had eight days to prepare, while China is on its third game in about ten days.
The shared opponent tells a story too. Palestine beat China 5-0 on China's own ground, but only beat Tajikistan 4-2. On that evidence these two teams aren't far apart, yet China is still being treated as the clear favourite. With confidence this low in the home camp, I like the visitors to get something out of this.
