Two games where the form on paper hides a thinner gap. Chicago against Vancouver is a meeting of two squads stripped by international duty, and Chicago have been hard to beat. Mexico against Chile pairs a home side that rarely loses at home with a visitor that has struggled badly on the road, even if Mexico's own recent run is shaky.
Chicago v Vancouver: Vancouver are the better side on the numbers, with xG around 2.1 for and 0.9 against, and they lead the West. But they had ten players missing in their last game, a 3-3 draw with DC, and they are short again in midfield and defence. Chicago have lost only two of their last ten, have drawn four of the last seven shown, and won 1-0 at Charlotte with their first-choice keeper away on international duty. The keeper being away is a real downgrade, but it did not stop them last time out.
Mexico v Chile: Chile's away record over the last 20 is two wins in eleven games, with 22 goals conceded, and they lost 2-4 at the USA and 0-1 at Canada in their last two. They did take 17 shots with 8 on target against the USA, and they come in with seven days of rest against Mexico's three. Mexico, though, have kept a clean sheet in 11 of their last 20 and lost only three of 16 home games in that stretch. Their World Cup xG was 1.2 for and 0.5 against.
Mexico have a new coach in Rafael Marquez, two 1-1 home draws in a row, one of them against Peru when they were the heavy favourites, and a 0-3 loss at the USA. So this leg is built on Chile's road form and Mexico's home record, not on Mexico playing well right now.
The common thread is that one side in each game has the better headline and the other has the stronger case on the specific conditions.
